Thanks for your interest in MktContext! The only discount we do is for annual subscriptions (11% off compared to monthly). We try to keep the price reasonable while offering high-quality content and exclusive segments for paid subs. Paid subscribers get additional in-depth analysis, technicals, trade recommendations, basically everything you need to make money in the market. We've accumulated market knowledge for many years and so we think this newsletter provides excellent value and should pay for itself quickly. I also encourage you to use the 7-day trial to experience the paid content - you won't be disappointed. Let me know if you have any other questions, I'm happy to discuss! We want to make as many readers happy as possible :)
A nice overview of what's going on and how you're looking at it.
I've seen a lot of people "blaming" Hurricane Beryl for the unemployment number, but I'm not sure if it's correct. David Mericle, chief economist at GS, specifically quotes the BLS as saying that Hurricane Beryl was "not an issue" with the data.
I've linked the video where he says that below.
I've been trying to get to the bottom of this myself... Curious to hear why you say it WAS an issue, as I try to figure out whether it was or was not.
Yes, BLS said Beryl was not an issue, but it's possible they were discussing the survey participation rather than the actual outcome of the data. Even in the video you linked, GS explains at length the weather/temporary layoff effects. In fact, economists seem unanimous in saying that the jobs print was anomalous (surprising - and worrisome!).
Either way, as a trader, I don't put too much weight on any single data point. There are a ton of different ways to skin a cat, and many other indicators suggest that the situation is still fine. Aggregate demand, cash sitting in bank accounts, spending, earnings, flights, restaurants, services, GDPNow, etc. The list goes on. That's why I posted that giant chart that shows a half dozen "recession indicators" that are collectively still pointing up.
The other thing to note is how the market is reacting to the news. We basically went from 0% chance to 10% chance of a recession, and though that doesn't change our thesis, the markets still need to price that in. That's why we're seeing defensive and low beta stocks bought this whole week - even if it's pretty clear that the base case is still soft landing. It's all about pricing the tails at this point. My guess is the soft landing narrative will resume at some point, but we let those defensive flows run first.
Is $39 the lowest sub fee for you paid newsletter? Have you done any sale/discount in the past? I like the free updates I have read so far.
Thanks for your interest in MktContext! The only discount we do is for annual subscriptions (11% off compared to monthly). We try to keep the price reasonable while offering high-quality content and exclusive segments for paid subs. Paid subscribers get additional in-depth analysis, technicals, trade recommendations, basically everything you need to make money in the market. We've accumulated market knowledge for many years and so we think this newsletter provides excellent value and should pay for itself quickly. I also encourage you to use the 7-day trial to experience the paid content - you won't be disappointed. Let me know if you have any other questions, I'm happy to discuss! We want to make as many readers happy as possible :)
A nice overview of what's going on and how you're looking at it.
I've seen a lot of people "blaming" Hurricane Beryl for the unemployment number, but I'm not sure if it's correct. David Mericle, chief economist at GS, specifically quotes the BLS as saying that Hurricane Beryl was "not an issue" with the data.
I've linked the video where he says that below.
I've been trying to get to the bottom of this myself... Curious to hear why you say it WAS an issue, as I try to figure out whether it was or was not.
https://youtu.be/3s11G5o4ENA?si=MqojhGBruGRPM2Yx&t=70
Yes, BLS said Beryl was not an issue, but it's possible they were discussing the survey participation rather than the actual outcome of the data. Even in the video you linked, GS explains at length the weather/temporary layoff effects. In fact, economists seem unanimous in saying that the jobs print was anomalous (surprising - and worrisome!).
Either way, as a trader, I don't put too much weight on any single data point. There are a ton of different ways to skin a cat, and many other indicators suggest that the situation is still fine. Aggregate demand, cash sitting in bank accounts, spending, earnings, flights, restaurants, services, GDPNow, etc. The list goes on. That's why I posted that giant chart that shows a half dozen "recession indicators" that are collectively still pointing up.
The other thing to note is how the market is reacting to the news. We basically went from 0% chance to 10% chance of a recession, and though that doesn't change our thesis, the markets still need to price that in. That's why we're seeing defensive and low beta stocks bought this whole week - even if it's pretty clear that the base case is still soft landing. It's all about pricing the tails at this point. My guess is the soft landing narrative will resume at some point, but we let those defensive flows run first.