🍔Technical Warning Signs

Bonus: 2 stock picks of the month

News headlines have reached zany levels of ridiculousness as we witnessed Trump and Elon Musk’s online feud. Thankfully, we won’t be discussing it today as the story is well covered by news outlets and social media, and frankly is a distraction from what’s really important this week.

This week we received a fresh batch of economic data inputs that we couldn’t ignore. We had several major labor market signals, and weak manufacturing and services PMI. How does this change our forecasts for the S&P500? Read on to find out!

Bonus: We are featuring two stock picks of the month! These stocks are in a beaten up sector, have strong competitive moats, and are now breaking out of a long technical base. You don’t want to miss this!

Slowing growth

We have been writing about the US exceptionalism theme reappearing as the rest of the world struggles with economic growth. Our thesis is simple: US tariffs are pushing weakness onto other countries. Well this week, the OECD cut its global growth outlook for the second time:

World growth is slowing

The rest of this article is for premium members. Today’s post covers:

• Slowing global growth

• Messy labor market

• Are consumers still consuming?

• Technical warning signs

• Positioning remains bearish

• Two stocks that are breaking out this week!