🍔Our 2025 Performance: +23%

Beating the S&P500 with lower risk. Better than buy-and-hold!

Year in review

2025 was an great year for us. Our core portfolio returned +23% compared to the S&P500 at 16%. We managed to avoid much of the April Liberation Day selloff, which means we achieved those returns with lower risk than the S&P500. Market timing works!

As a reminder, we only own equity ETFs. We buy low, sell high to get a better return than a buy-and-hold strategy. We generally don’t trade a lot, unless it’s a crazy year like 2025. For newer readers, you can hold individual stocks if you prefer — our views are a signal to the directionality of the broad market.

We had some great calls this year. These were all made to paid subscribers in real-time, and can be verified in the archive. Here’s a recap:

• Feb 27 Sell: We started the year incredibly bullish; we even thought there would be a short squeeze. But when SPX failed to break to new highs, we quickly changed our views and sold a portion of the portfolio near the peak. This capped off a tremendous 70% run from the Oct 2022 lows.