I think it’s because there’s a feeling that there’s a shoe still to drop. The fake jobs numbers being the latest example. Bull market benefits are not being felt by too many of our youth. Frighteningly high unemployment among China kids too.
It's tricky because the economy is bifurcated - some people are doing fine and as you pointed out, some aren't. That means certain data points are glaringly bad and makes us wonder why the rest of the economy isn't falling apart. But by and large, aside from incremental weakening like we saw in the jobs revisions, it's still relatively intact and so that's the main narrative for now until something gives.
For sure. That feeling can be expensive in the stock market if you hold on to the premise too long though, like many have since 2022. I like the old market adage, "more money has been lost preparing for a crash than in the actual crash itself.
Feels like it's the most hated bull market of all time too!
I think it’s because there’s a feeling that there’s a shoe still to drop. The fake jobs numbers being the latest example. Bull market benefits are not being felt by too many of our youth. Frighteningly high unemployment among China kids too.
It's tricky because the economy is bifurcated - some people are doing fine and as you pointed out, some aren't. That means certain data points are glaringly bad and makes us wonder why the rest of the economy isn't falling apart. But by and large, aside from incremental weakening like we saw in the jobs revisions, it's still relatively intact and so that's the main narrative for now until something gives.
For sure. That feeling can be expensive in the stock market if you hold on to the premise too long though, like many have since 2022. I like the old market adage, "more money has been lost preparing for a crash than in the actual crash itself.
What a coincidence. My next post was going to discuss this exact topic.
Nice, I’m excited to read it!