🍔Did the Rally Just Peak?

Views on NVDA and the broader market

Welcome to the free midweek edition of MktContext. I am a professional money manager, trader, and investor who loves writing about markets. Subscribe to receive free weekly insights on the economy and how to time the stock market.

August performance

For those of you reading MktContext for the first time, our investment strategy is to be 100% in stocks (mainly S&P500 ETFs) and use market timing to avoid drawdowns. This allows us to capture all the upside and beat a buy-and-hold strategy by sidestepping drawdowns. This also eliminates the need for bonds, which are a drag. We explain our approach in detail here.

August is quickly coming to a close and we managed to avoid most of the -10% selloff, handily beating a buy-and-hold strategy. With some luck, our signals timed the July peak and August bottom. We also switched into QQQ on the ride up, which added alpha. Not too bad for one month of work.

Now that the market has rallied 10% from the bottom, forecasters and financial media are coming …