More consolidation in stock markets this week as volatile news headlines continued. We were correct in our call to buy the market starting on April 13, near the bottom. Our portfolio is now well into profit thanks to the recent trade drama and market downturn. This is the power of market timing.
The risk is still high out there. Trade tensions have not ended, and the macro economy is still slowing. Markets are at a pivotal point that will determine your investment returns for the next year. Can you predict whatâs coming next?
Israel/Iran conflict
Fridayâs major headline was Israelâs attack on Iranâs nuclear infrastructure and military officials. Tragically, it hit civilians as well. Stocks gapped down on the day. Oil shot up 13% in overnight trading (biggest jump in 3 years) and gold shot up as a safe haven. Within 24 hours, Iran had reportedly hit back. The conflict could extend longer than anyone expects.
It is not a political statement nor moral apathy when we say that geopolitical conflicts are often not impactful to markets in the long run. The international community has been aware of Iranâs nuclear facility since 2003, and while there have been many scary headlines since then, none of them have meaningfully impacted the US economy or megacap tech names. We abhor human suffering, but in our portfolios we must be pragmatists.
This development is relevant to investors in two waysâŚ
The rest of this article is for premium members. Todayâs post covers:
What everyone is missing about Apple
AI trade is alive and well
Small cap (false) breakout
Software vs semis and why NVDA is lagging
Technical analysis about the next selloff
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